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Betting the Streaks: Winning in Baseball After a Long Losing Streak
Author : Proloy Bhattacharyya
In our article “Losing in Baseball after a Long Winning Streak”, we determined that we should continue to go for a team off of a long winning streak despite losing 1 game. In this article, we set out to analyze the opposite situation of a team having a long losing streak and then winning a game. Historical evidence supports the fact that we ought to start betting on the team. This is contrary to the previous article in that it explains how we ought to go against the team’s losing trend and predict a winning path. The previous article explains how we ought to go with the team’s winning trend. Nevertheless, teams that were on an 8+ game losing streak after getting a win are 54-53, +15 units. This indicates that the spread is off by an average of 14 points. We all recognize that any team losing 8+ games in a row is not worth betting on. In fact, the novice gambler will often see them winning one game as a sign that this “loser” team will lose its next game. As I mentioned in my many other articles, this will only add value to our “loser” team because of the public’s propensity to go against them in this situation. This system improves to 23-7 if our team came off a win of more than 1 run and is currently playing a divisional rival. The letdown game that everybody expects after the rare win does not happen against a divisional rival where we expect our team to continue to give their best effort. The letdown game does occur if our team either came off a 1 run squeaker win or is playing against a non-divisional rival. This falls in line with the public notion that a letdown game is imminent but what people need to realize is the state of mind of the team. Is their a psychological factor that supports the letdown game theory? In the case of playing against a divisional rival, there is not. Proloy Bhattacharyya
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